With inflation comfortably below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) 4 per cent median target and likely to undershoot its 3.7 per cent projection for 2025-26 (FY26), there is room for the monetary policy easing cycle to be sustained, the Finance Ministry said on Monday. The comments, featured in the ministry's Monthly Economic Review for June 2025, assume significance ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) scheduled to begin from August 5.
Gold and silver prices are anticipated to maintain a positive trajectory in the coming week, with market volatility expected to remain high due to ongoing developments in West Asia and upcoming global economic data, particularly the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its key policy rates for the fourth consecutive time, keeping the repo rate at 5.25 per cent, while the benchmark BSE Sensex closed 152 points higher in a volatile session, recovering from an intraday dip.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept its key lending rate, the repo rate, unchanged at 5.25 per cent for the second consecutive time, citing concerns over rising energy prices, supply disruptions from the West Asia crisis, and potential inflationary pressures.
Gold and silver are expected to remain volatile with a corrective bias as investors assess the latest flare-up in the US-Iran conflict, movements in crude oil prices, and inflation data, which could reshape expectations for global interest rates, according to analysts.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, saw early gains driven by lower crude oil prices and buying in Reliance Industries, even as the Reserve Bank of India maintained its benchmark policy rate for the fourth consecutive meeting, reinforcing confidence in the domestic economy.
The Indian equity market is set for an event-heavy week, with analysts pointing to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) interest rate decision, developments in the US-Iran situation, and crude oil prices as the primary determinants of market trends.
Even if there is an early agreement on a cessation of hostilities in West Asia, the price shock will not go away easily, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, extended their winning streak for a third consecutive day, driven by a rally in IT stocks and global cues suggesting a more accommodative monetary policy after softer-than-expected US jobs data.
Bank of Baroda economists project India's GDP to grow 6.5-6.8 per cent in FY27 but warn that the fiscal deficit could overshoot the budgeted 4.3 per cent target, potentially reaching 4.7-4.8 per cent of GDP due to subsidy overruns, excise duty cuts, and oil marketing company losses.
Raghuram Rajan, who was Chief Economic Advisor in the Finance Ministry before taking over as RBI Governor on September 4, is scheduled to announce the next mid-quarter policy review on December 18.
The United Nations has revised downward India's economic growth forecast for 2026 to 6.4 per cent from an earlier 6.6 per cent, attributing the change to global uncertainties and economic shocks stemming from the ongoing West Asia crisis.
The Indian government has extended the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) mandate to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent, with a tolerance band of 2 per cent on either side, for another five years until March 2031.
Nomura has increased its March 2027 target for the Nifty 50 to 25,900, driven by strong corporate earnings and attractive market valuations, even as risks from the West Asia conflict and high oil prices persist.
The core dilemma remains: Why provide further stimulus to an economy that is already booming at an 8 per cent growth rate? asks Rajeswari Sengupta.
The country's primary capital markets delivered a robust performance in FY26, emerging as a global leader in initial public offerings (IPOs) despite an uncertain environment, the Economic Survey said on Thursday.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected that crude oil prices will average USD 85 per barrel and the rupee will weaken to 94 against the dollar by FY27, according to its bi-annual Monetary Policy report.
Silver and gold prices declined sharply in the futures trade on Friday as traders booked profits at elevated levels after a record-breaking rally, tracking a bearish sentiment in global markets and a rebound in the US dollar.
Indian stock markets experienced a significant rally following the announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, coupled with a drop in crude oil prices. The Sensex and Nifty both closed nearly 4 per cent higher, mirroring gains in global markets.
Sanjay Malhotra has made structural changes to banking regulation to bring down costs and increase efficiency. Plus, he kicked off a benign interest regime. But there are challenges ahead.
Fixed deposits from nationalised banks delivered higher returns than equities, outperforming both inflation and stock market benchmarks.
'In the long run, India's strong growth story and reforms to make assets globally attractive will determine the rupee's resilience.'
Analysts predict continued volatility in Indian equity markets due to domestic macroeconomic data, F&O expiry, global developments including US tariff policies, and geopolitical tensions.
The Survey is authored by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his team.
Almost a decade after India shifted to a formal inflation-targeting regime under the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) framework of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), a high-level panel of economists said that the flexible inflation targeting has largely worked in keeping it under control and no major revamp is required.
Deloitte India on Thursday projected India's economy to grow 6.7-6.9 per cent in the current fiscal amid buoyant demand and policy reforms. Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal.
Indian economy remains a key driver of global growth on the back of sound macroeconomic fundamentals and prudent policies, the Reserve Bank said on Monday. In its bi-annual Financial Stability Report (FSR), the central bank also said elevated economic and trade policy uncertainties are testing the resilience of the global economy and the financial system.
High frequency indicators, like vehicles sales, air traffic, steel consumption and GST E-way bills, point towards a sequential pickup in momentum of economic activity during the second half of the fiscal 2024-25 and sustain moving forward, RBI Bulletin said on Wednesday. However, a strong dollar, driven by US economic resilience and trade policy pivots, could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging economies, push risk premiums higher, and intensify external vulnerabilities, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in RBI's February bulletin.
The change in stance to neutral from accommodative in the June monetary policy meeting does not necessarily signal that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) rate setting body - monetary policy committee (MPC) - will go on a prolonged pause on rate cuts going forward, believe experts.
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The rupee plunged 26 paise to an all-time low of 90.75 against the US dollar in intra-day trade on Monday, weighed down by uncertainty over an India-US trade deal and persistent foreign fund outflows.
The Indian government has expressed its disagreement with the IMF staff's 'baseline' assumption that the 50 per cent US tariffs on its goods exports 'would remain in place indefinitely', based on which the staff pegged the country's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent this year, and pared its 2026-27 projection by 20 basis points to 6.2 per cent.
'Maybe he was wrong, but they believed he genuinely meant what he said.'
Reserve Bank of India (RBI)Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday said it was not the regulator's job to take decisions for bank boards, speaking in the context of the wide range of enabling reforms announced for lenders during the October monetary policy review, and emphasised that financial stability remained the regulator's focus.
The RBI on Wednesday slashed key interest rate by 25 basis points, for the second time in a row, to support a shuttering economy hit by reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US. Following the rate cut, the key policy rate eased to 6 per cent providing relief to home, auto and corporate loan borrowers.
India, the world's fourth largest economy, is set to maintain the 'goldilocks' phase with tailwinds of good growth, low inflation and robust banking performance as well as reform initiatives poised to sustain the economic pace witnessed during 2025.
The US Fed interest rate decision, inflation data and FIIs are the key factors that are expected to drive stock markets this week, analysts said. Global trends will also be tracked by investors for further cues, they added. "The Indian stock market's future trajectory will be influenced by a blend of global and domestic factors.
Rating agency Icra on Wednesday said while there is some evidence of the economic recovery becoming broad-based in the third quarter of fiscal 2022, it is yet to attain the durability being sought by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as a precursor to policy transmission. The agency expects the real GDP to expand 6-6.5 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of FY2022 (+8.4 per cent in Q2 FY2022). It also sees the RBI maintaining the status quo in the upcoming monetary policy review to be held in February.
Among Sensex firms, Eternal, Infosys, Asian Paints, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finserv and Titan were the major gainers. However, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, Adani Ports and Bharat Electronics were among the laggards.
